Background

With the growing demand and usage of Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs), electric utilities are facing important considerations regarding grid reliability and power supply.

California is at the forefront of developing electrification programs and setting emissions reduction targets, including Executive Order N-79-20, requiring all new passenger vehicles sold to be zero emission by 2035, and all medium- to heavy-duty vehicles sold to be zero emission by 2045. As a result, various California utilities, including Roseville Electric Utility (REU), are actively developing PEV programs to incentivize electrification and managed charging to support the grid. Through these initiatives, REU not only commits to a more resilient grid system but also enhances access to electrification for its customers and ensures that challenges posed by PEVs to the system are carefully considered and addressed through advanced planning.

Service

Energeia conducted an assessment of the existing conditions in the Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) and Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) markets, as well as anticipated changes in these markets in the coming years. This evaluation included factors such as vehicle model availability, driving range, and battery capacity for both light-duty and heavy-duty EVs, in order to forecast adoption by individual consumers and fleets. Energeia identified current and potential trends in PEV technology, adoption, and usage to project demand in REU’s service territory.

This project serves as an update to previous work conducted by AECOM and Energeia in 2018, which focused on PEV projections, technologies, and resources, including the required infrastructure for Direct Current Fast Chargers (DCFC) over the next decade. The earlier study also examined the impacts on Roseville’s electric grid and recommended implementation practices to minimize strain on the grid and mitigate emissions. The aim of the current study is to inform REU of changes in the transportation electrification landscape and update forecasts of PEV adoption and grid impacts in REU’s service territory. Energeia’s work equipped REU with the necessary information and capacity to offer sufficient and easily accessible charging infrastructure to Roseville residents.

Results

As part of this analysis, Energeia discovered that Level 3 –DCFC are increasingly accessible to the general public, along with the emergence of Vehicle to Grid (V2G) charging. Both advancements were projected to become standard in the future.

Energeia developed three bottom-up models for REU, including a PEV Uptake Model to forecast PEV adoption over time by vehicle type, an 8760 Model to forecast charging load by vehicle type and charging location, and a Grid Impacts Model to project the count of PEVs, peak load kWs, and V2G load by transformer over time. Energeia’s grid impact analysis determined that impacts are highest around DCFC locations, parking lots, and commercial and government depots due to vehicle concentrations and projected implementation of high-power DCFC charging solutions.

Outcome

The results of Energeia’s PEV Update Study have been presented to REU and recorded in a final report.